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CUMULUS MEDIA INC (CMLS)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 results modestly ahead of consensus on revenue and EPS: revenue $186.017M vs $184.150M consensus; Primary EPS −$0.60 vs −$0.72 consensus, while GAAP diluted EPS was −$0.74, reflecting ongoing macro and secular pressure but disciplined cost control and digital outperformance *.
  • Year-over-year, revenue declined 9.2% and Adjusted EBITDA decreased 11.3% to $22.358M; GAAP net loss improved to −$12.821M from −$27.699M on lower content costs and absence of prior-year debt exchange costs .
  • Digital marketing services (DMS) remained the standout, growing 38% YoY and now ~50% of digital revenue; total digital grew 20% YoY excluding the Daily Wire and Dan Bongino impacts .
  • Balance sheet liquidity increased with quarter-end cash of $96.745M (includes a $55M revolver draw); net debt (less unamortized discount) was $600.372M; management now expects 2025 CapEx to be below prior $22.5M guide .
  • Near-term setup remains cautious: management said Q3 total revenue is pacing down “low double digits” (mid-single digits ex political and the Daily Wire/Bongino comps), with national spot still weak; DMS run-rate expected to surpass $100M early next year, a timeline acceleration versus Q1 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Digital outperformance: “Digital marketing services grew 38%... Digital marketing services revenue now represents approximately 50% of total digital revenue” .
    • Share gains despite headwinds: “We continued to outperform our radio peers, gaining market share across all broadcast spot revenue channels” .
    • Execution and cost discipline: $5M of annualized fixed cost reductions in Q2; total $175M over 5 years; CapEx now expected below prior $22.5M guide .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Broadcast weakness: Spot −10.5% YoY; Network −20.5% YoY on national softness, removed inventory, and unfavorable sports mix in Q2 .
    • Overall top-line decline: Net revenue −9.2% YoY to $186.017M; Adjusted EBITDA −11.3% YoY to $22.358M .
    • Macro/national headwinds persist: Management is “not seeing any improvement in [national] pacing at this point,” and Q3 total revenue is pacing down low double digits .

Financial Results

Headline financials by quarter (oldest → newest)

MetricQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Net Revenue ($M)$218.576 $187.349 $186.017
GAAP Net Income (Loss) ($M)$(231.080) $(32.367) $(12.821)
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)$25.039 $3.519 $22.358
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$(13.60) $(1.88) $(0.74)

Q2 2025 results vs S&P Global consensus

MetricActualConsensusSurpriseNotes
Revenue ($M)$186.017 $184.150*+$1.867~+1.0% calc
Primary EPS ($)−$0.604*−$0.72*+$0.116S&P “Primary EPS”; GAAP diluted EPS −$0.74
# of Estimates (Rev / EPS)—2 / 2*—Limited coverage

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment revenue breakdown (dollars in millions)

Revenue LineQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Spot$100.054 $80.964 $91.151
Network$49.253 $43.933 $27.286
Total Broadcast Radio$149.307 $124.897 $118.437
Digital$40.334 $36.565 $38.832
Other$28.935 $25.887 $28.748
Net Revenue$218.576 $187.349 $186.017

KPIs and Non-GAAP context

KPIQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Digital revenue ($M)$40.334 $36.565 $38.832
DMS YoY growth+27% +30% +38%
DMS as % of Digitaln/an/a~50%
Digital YoY ex-Daily Wire/Bonginon/a+20.4% +20%
Podcast YoY ex-DW/Bonginon/a+39% “over 30%”
Political revenue ($M)$10.118 $0.832 $1.149
Adj. EBITDA ex-political ($M)$15.932 $2.770 $21.324

Balance sheet and CapEx

Metric ($M)Q4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Cash & Equivalents$63.836 $52.694 $96.745
Total Debt Principal, Gross$671.595 $670.165 $723.703
Total Debt at Maturity$642.117 $642.117 $697.117
Net Debt less Unamort. Discount$578.281 $589.423 $600.372
Capital Expenditures$3.583 $5.540 $5.528

Notes: Q2 cash includes a $55M revolver draw . YoY comparability benefited from absence of Q2’24 debt exchange costs ($16.3M) .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Total revenue pacingQ3 2025Pacing down ~10% total; ~5% ex political & ex Daily Wire, net of Bongino Pacing down low double digits total; ~mid-single digits ex political & ex WIRE/Bongino Lowered (headline) / Maintained (ex comps)
CapExFY 2025~$22.5M Now expected below $22.5M Lowered
DMS revenue run-rateEarly next year“Over $100M+ run-rate by end of next year” “Expect to surpass $100M run-rate early next year” Accelerated
Non-core asset salesFY 2025Targeting $10–$15M proceeds “Expect nearly $14M” by year end Maintained (within prior range)
Fixed cost reductions (traffic outsourcing)FY 2026 benefit—“Several million dollars” savings in 2026 from outsourcing traffic function New initiative

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q4’24, Q1’25)Current Period (Q2’25)Trend
AI/technology initiativesQ4’24: focus on transforming assets; 2024 refinancing to buy time . Q1’25: deploying AI (voice-cloned spec ads, chatbots) .“Significantly accelerated our use of AI… 100+ projects,” training salesforce, use cases across sales/training/content .Accelerating
Macro/interest rates & national adsQ4’24: industry/macro headwinds persisted . Q1’25: tariffs and spending cuts weighed; pacing down ~10% total .“Not seeing any improvement” in national pacing; Q3 total pacing down low double digits .Worsening headline pacing
Digital marketing services (DMS)Q1’25: +30% YoY; strong KPIs, path to $100M+ run-rate by end of next year .+38% YoY; ~50% of digital revenue; surpass $100M run-rate early next year .Strengthening
PodcastingQ1’25: −13% reported; +~40% ex-Daily Wire; replacing Bongino with Vince Coglianese .+>30% YoY ex-DW/Bongino; growth from new shows and audience gains .Improving ex-comp
Cost actions2024 actions to deliver $43M annualized; $7.5M more in Q1’25 .Additional $5M annualized in Q2; outsourcing traffic for 2026 savings .Ongoing discipline
Asset sales/liquidityQ1’25: aim for $10–$15M; $53M cash; undrawn ABL .Expect ~$14M proceeds; $96.745M cash including $55M ABL draw .Liquidity bolstered via ABL

Management Commentary

  • “We continued to outperform our radio peers, gaining market share across all broadcast spot revenue channels… [and] delivered double the growth rate of our radio peers [in digital], driven by the 38% year-over-year increase in our digital marketing services business” — Mary G. Berner, CEO .
  • “We significantly accelerated our use of AI… over a 100 different projects… training our entire Salesforce on how to effectively use AI to craft speeches… and fine tune packaging and pricing” — Mary G. Berner .
  • “Digital revenue was up 20% excluding… Daily Wire and Dan Bongino… DMS… up 38% in Q2 and currently pacing up more than 35% in Q3… DMS revenue now represents roughly 50% of our total digital revenue” — Frank Lopez‑Balboa, CFO .
  • “We now expect full year CapEx to be below the $22.5M guidance… [and] expect to generate nearly $14M of noncore asset sales [by] the end of the year” — Frank Lopez‑Balboa .
  • “Looking ahead… we are confident in our ability to position the business for long-term success through strong execution and by capitalizing on the Company’s valuable underlying assets” — Mary G. Berner .

Q&A Highlights

  • National pacing: “We’re not seeing any improvement in [national] pacing at this point,” despite potential rate cuts; national demand remains lumpy and weak .
  • Search referral impacts: Referral search is a very small part of digital; exposure limited; teams continually optimize campaigns to sustain ROI .
  • Categories: Spot best categories included travel and financial; network best included pharma and insurance; auto remains weak, especially small markets—lower rates would be a tailwind .
  • Expense discipline: ~10M of Q2 expense reductions were fixed costs; having removed ~$175M since 2019, incremental savings should be “more modest,” but AI and process optimization continue .
  • Podcast growth drivers: Growth from adding shows, audience expansion, and multi-platform packaging (e.g., Sean Ryan and The Dana Show gains) .

Estimates Context

  • Q2 2025 revenue beat: $186.017M actual vs $184.150M consensus; ~+1.0% surprise *.
  • Primary EPS beat: −$0.60 actual vs −$0.72 consensus; +$0.12 surprise; note GAAP diluted EPS was −$0.74 *.
  • Coverage remains sparse (2 estimates for revenue and EPS); with Q3 pacing down low double digits, consensus for 2H could drift lower absent a turn in national demand, partly offset by DMS strength *.

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Digital-led resilience: DMS up 38% with accelerating momentum (pacing >35% in Q3), now ~50% of digital revenue; expect to surpass $100M run-rate early 2026 — a key multi-year growth pillar .
  • Broadcast drag persists: Spot and network declines (−10.5% and −20.5% YoY) and weak national pacing point to continued pressure near-term; headline Q3 pacing down low double digits .
  • Cost and cash optionality: Another $5M annualized fixed cost takeout, traffic outsourcing adds 2026 savings; cash to $96.745M post $55M ABL draw; ~$14M asset sales expected by year-end .
  • Numbers vs Street: Small beats on revenue and Primary EPS; limited sell-side coverage implies estimate sensitivity to intra-quarter pacing updates *.
  • Watch catalysts: Macro/national ad inflection (rates, auto recovery), execution on DMS scaling, podcast roster momentum, realization of asset sale proceeds and further cost actions—including AI-driven efficiencies .
  • Risk/reward: High leverage and secular headwinds cap near-term multiple expansion; digital share gains and disciplined Opex provide a path to EBITDA stabilization if national advertising stabilizes .